https://t.me/TimNasionalCyber01JM
*_BACA AGAR TAJAM AKURAT DAN TERUS KERJA KERAS GALANG SUARA UNTUK #01 JOKOWI MARUF_*
*_PANDANGAN ILMIAH AHLI_*
BAGAIMANA JIKA LEMBAGA SURVEI MELESET ????
– Menjawab 5 Salah Paham
Denny JA
Yang cukup layak untuk dikutip hari hari ini soal lembaga survei bukan sebuah teori politik. Yang layak kutip justru sebuah peribahasa lama: Buruk Rupa Cermin Dibelah. Karena kecewa wajah nampak buruk, cermin yang fungsinya hanya memantulkan realitas dihancurkan.
Lembaga survei yang kredibel itu adalah cermin. Para politisi, kandidat, partai itu wajah yang nampak di cermin.
Survei LSI Denny JA, sekitar 40 hari menjelang hari pencoblosan mengumumkan. Kemenangan Jokowi melebar 58.7 persen versus 30.9 persen. Seketika serangan datang bertubi-tubi. Bukan riset dibalas riset. Bukan data dibalas data. Tapi diberondong peluru gabungan antara kritik yang sehat, prasangka, gosip dan salah paham.
Saya memutuskan menjawab segala hal “salah paham” itu dalam satu esai saja, berikut dengan catatan kaki. Dalam catatan kaki, tersedia link untuk dipelajari lebih lanjut. -000-
Salah Paham Pertama:
Bahkan di Amerika Serikat ketika Hillary Clinton versus Donald Trump, lembaga survei meleset. Hampir semua lembaga survei memenangkan Hillary. Kenyataannya Trump yang menang. Jika di pusatnya saja lembaga survei bisa meleset, apalagi di Indonesia.
JAWAB:
Tak ada yang meleset dalam publikasi lembaga survei di Amerika Serikat, untuk kasus Hillary versus Trump. Data terakhir menunjukkan, secara nasional memang Hillary menang sekitar 2,8 juta suara. Hasil pemilu itu sama dengan yang diumumkan lembaga survei.
Tapi memang sistem di Amerika Serikat berbeda. Yang menentukan menang kalah bukan keseluruhan dukungan rakyat. Yang menentukan itu sistem electoral college.
Bukan lembaga survei meleset, tapi sistem menentukan kemenangannya berbeda.
Link ini bisa dibaca: http://amp.timeinc.net/time/4608555/hillary-clinton-popular-vote-final. -000-
Salah Paham Kedua:
Survei LSI Denny JA pernah meleset ketika pilkada Jakarta 2017, juga pilkada Jateng dan Jabar 2018. Soal survei pilpres 2019 pasti meleset lagi.
Jawab:
Cek saja google, survei LSI Denny JA sangat akurat dalam mempublikasi siapa yang akan menang dalam pilkada DKI (2017), Jateng (2018), Jabar (2018). Link di bawah ini bisa dicek.
Tips: jika membandingkan survei dengan hasil KPU, lihat publikasi terakhir lembaga survei itu menjelang hari pencoblosan. Jangan survei yang jauh hari karena dukungan itu dinamis.”
Soal pilkada DKI (2017): ini link survei LSI Denny JA sebelum hari pencoblosan yang mengabarkan Anies akan mengalahkan Ahok
Link: https://m.detik.com/news/berita/d-3473802/survei-lsi-denny-ja-anies-sandi-514-ahok-djarot-427
Soal pilkada Jateng (2018), ini link survei LSI Denny JA sebelum hari pencoblosan yang mengabarkan Ganjar Pranowo akan memenangkan pilkada
Link: https://m.detik.com/news/berita-jawa-tengah/d-3988130/unggul-di-segala-lini-lskp-lsi-ganjar-di-ambang-dua-periode
Soal pilkada Jabar (2017), ini link survei LSI Denny JA sebelum hari pencoblosan yang mengabarkan Ridwan Kamil yang akan memenangkan pilkada.
Link: https://regional.kompas.com/read/2018/06/21/16101951/survei-lsi-elektabilitas-ridwan-uu-388-persen-deddy-dedi-366-persen
Tak ada yang meleset dalam memprediksi kemenangan akhir (sekali lagi kemenangan akhir). Bahwa prosentase kemenangan dan dukungan pihak lawan itu berbeda, tentu saja.
Survei dibuat dengan asumsi “jika pemilu hari ini (hari ketika survei dibuat, yang pastilah paling anyar 14 hari sebelum hari pencoblosan). Setelah survei terakhir diumumkan, masih ada sekian hari kampanye dan hari tenang. Segala hal bisa terjadi dan tak terpantau lagi oleh survei.
Tapi hal paling utama, calon yang akhirnya menjadi gubernur DKI (2017), Jateng (2018), Jabar (2018) sama dengan yang diprediksi LSI Denny JA.
Bahkan untuk pilkada DKI 2017, LSI Denny JA mendapatkan penghargaan dari asosiasi lembaga survei karena akurasi dan lainnya:
Link: http://m.tribunnews.com/amp/nasional/2017/05/09/lsi-denny-ja-sabet-lima-kategori-pengha
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2831466040223378&id=100000800303163
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